Black Friday may not be the shopping extravaganza of the past, when people left Thanksgiving tables for stores where some patrons got into fistfights over TVs or toys due to the promise of one time deals. However, there are still enough fans to make it the largest shopping day in the United States.
Because of this, the day continues to be recognized as the formal beginning of the holiday shopping season. This year's launch coincides with businesses navigating a precarious economic climate and battling the volatility of President Donald Trump's extensive import tariffs.
Instead than boosting prices for customers, many have reduced hiring and absorbed some of the costs. Due to the government shutdown, poor hiring, and persistent inflation, consumer confidence in the US economy dropped this month to the lowest level since April, when Trump announced his tariffs, according to a report released on Tuesday by The Conference Board.
However, based on the strong quarterly sales statistics from Walmart, Best Buy, and other stores, consumers have remained resilient and willing to spend. However, a lot of retail executives also claim that consumers are picky about what they buy and are concentrating on deals.
Due to concerns about tariffs, Aron Boxer, 50, of Greenwich, Connecticut, said he postponed purchasing a car this year. He stated that he will search for toy offers on Cyber Monday, but he is also prepared to wait until the very end to find the best deal.
"The tariffs definitely are not behind me, and I am concerned about it," stated the founder of a life coaching and educational services business.
"I did consider buying earlier this year, but I feel like some people made some pretty bad business decisions anticipating tariffs to have a bigger impact than they did." However, ahead of Black Friday week, experts and mall officials saw strong momentum.
"We're seeing a very positive start to the holiday season," said Jill Renslow, chief business development and marketing officer of Bloomington, Minnesota's Mall of America, which will award gift cards and other freebies to the first 250 patrons who arrive on Friday at 7 a.m.
"The last few Saturdays in November have been very strong." Before Black Friday, mall traffic exceeded pre-pandemic 2019 levels, according to Renslow.
The largest retail trade association in the country, the National Retail Federation, forecasted a robust rise in Christmas sales. According to the group's estimates, consumers would spend between USD 1.01 trillion and USD 1.02 trillion in November and December, which is an increase of 3.7% to 4.2% over the previous year.
According to the association, retailers increased their Christmas sales by 4.3% from 2023 to USD 976 billion last year. From November 1 to December 24, Mastercard SpendingPulse, which monitors spending using all payment methods, including cash, forecast a 3.6% rise in holiday sales. In contrast, last year's gain was 4.1%.
"Clearly, there's uncertainty," Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at Mastercard, stated. "It's obvious that customers are tense. However, as of right now, it doesn't appear to be altering their appearance for this season."
So far, online sales have been very successful. Customers spent "USD 79.7 billion," according to Adobe Analytics, between November 1 and Sunday. That was higher than Adobe's 5.3% growth projection for the season and an increase of 7.5% over the previous year.
Tariffs have influenced retailers' pricing and merchandising tactics. Before the tariffs went into effect, many merchants expedited the supply of some holiday products while also covering a portion of the additional import expenses. However, retailers continue to pass on a portion of the cost for products like toys, which are mostly made in China.
40% of all general items sold in September witnessed a price increase of at least 5% when compared to the first four months of the year, according to market research firm Circana's retail tracking service, which looked at many subcategories of general merchandise.
Among the most severely affected were toys, infant supplies, home goods, and equipment for team sports. For instance, according to Circana, 83% of toys sold in September showed a rise of at least 5%.
According to Marshal Cohen, the company's top industry advisor, that percentage increased from 32% in June and will rise even further in the upcoming months.
Retailers are touting milder holiday deals, according to some executives. Deals didn't appear at the mall as soon as Renslow of Mall of America had hoped.
However, she guessed that store tenants had increased this week, offering reductions between thirty and fifty percent. For the weekend, she believes they'll probably go deeper.
Unimpressive Christmas discounts was also mentioned by Stephen Lebovitz, CEO of CBL Properties, which runs 85 retail establishments.
"I think one of the benefits of the tariffs or the silver lining is that the inventory levels for the retailers are leaner, and they've tried to allow themselves to keep pricing power," he stated.
