In Hindu mythology, mortals appeased the deity of rain, Indra, by praying and carrying out complex rites. According to legend, the melodic voice of musician Tansen could call forth showers from clear heavens.
However, neither Tansen's tenor nor the Ashvamedha yagna are possessed by ordinary mortals. A new type of rainmaker in contemporary India uses science rather than music to attract precipitation from the sky.
After this week's unsuccessful experiment, Dilliwalas dreams of a downpour may have faded, but these few rainmakers are still certain that the science of cloud seeding is effective when used correctly.
Cloud seeding is an 80 year old method of modifying the weather in which moisture bearing clouds are seeded with particles such as calcium chloride or silver iodide to encourage rainfall.
According to research, it can increase rainfall by 18-46% and help avoid issues like drought and water scarcity. Around the world, it has been applied with differing degrees of success, especially in the US and China.
Although cloud seeding studies and experiments have been carried out in India since the 1970s by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, states only started conducting on-site experiments for rain enhancement in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu in 2003.
This is the first instance of using cloud seeding to combat pollution. Since 2003, the Bengaluru-based Agni Aero Sports Adventure Academy has collaborated on rain enhancement projects with Maharashtra, Andhra, and Rajasthan.
The Delhi experiment might have been more detrimental than beneficial, according to its founder, Arvind Sharma, a skilled microlight pilot. "Rain cannot be produced by cloud seeding. Under certain weather conditions, such as cloud formation and moisture, it can intensify rain. The project's failure is hardly surprising," he says.
Under Sharma's leadership, the organization has completed projects in Andhra and Maharashtra's rainy regions, each with its own unique set of difficulties.
"In order to safeguard both passengers and the aircraft, pilots are trained to avoid turbulence. Sharma explains that in order to inject the chemical into the clouds, the plane must go near by. "In cloud seeding, we not only go seeking turbulence but also go right into the clouds," he says.
According to Prakash Koliwad, founder of Kyathi Climate, which has conducted projects with IITM Pune and worked on multiple missions in Maharashtra and Karnataka between 2015 and 2019, the field has been the subject of 30 years of research, establishing it as valid science.
He contends that it is not as expensive as it is being portrayed if used properly. "The Maharashtra government must address issues like farmer distress and suicide in addition to spending Rs 4,000-5,000 crore annually on drought relief. They won't have to deal with irate farmers or suffering if they invest 0.1-0.2% of that sum to increase rainfall at the start of the monsoon season, he claims.
So why hasn't this method gained greater traction? The CEO of Siri Aviations, Suman Akkaraju, says it's due to ignorance. Many people still consider cloud seeding to be an experimental strategy. Public knowledge, regulatory clearances, and awareness all require time. However, use is gradually rising with greater data and more shown results.
According to reports, the Delhi government spends Rs 65 lakh every day, while multi month projects can cost Rs 30-40 crore. Rajasthan recently implemented a more economical technique that was touted as India's first drone based cloud seeding. But even that has a mixed record. The government attempted, but failed, to revitalize Ramgarh Lake in August and September of this year by using drones to simulate rain.
The technology has gained popularity outside, while being a bit of a damp (or dry) squib in India. In 1946, Vincent Schaefer described the first innovative attempt to increase snowfall by using dry ice.
Since the 1950s, the US has employed cloud seeding in mountainous regions to enhance snowfall. During the Vietnam War, the US military conducted Operation Popeye, a covert five-year effort designed to prolong the monsoon season and impede enemy movement. At the 1980 Moscow Olympics and the 2008 Beijing Olympics, cloud seeding was also employed, but to prevent rain rather than to create it.
According to reports, it was even utilized for the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge's wedding in 2012. The UAE and China have made significant investments to combat drought. Environmental specialists back home have written off the cloud seeding initiative as "theatrics" that don't deal with the underlying causes of air pollution.
Cloud seeding is a highly specialized scientific undertaking that needs to be carried out carefully, according to Gufran Beig of the National Institute of Advanced Studies and founder-director of SAFAR.
"The likelihood of success is 50–60% even under the best circumstances, which are before and after the monsoon season. At this time of year, the likelihood drops to 10%, he says.
