Beijing's emphasis on Paris in its relations with the European Union is highlighted by the fact that Chinese leader Xi Jinping accompanied French President Emmanuel Macron to Chengdu on Friday. This unusual gesture appears to be saved for the head of Europe's second-largest economy.
Even though Xi treated U.S. President Donald Trump to a special supper in Beijing's Forbidden City during his historic visit to China early in his first term in 2017, the trip was limited to the Chinese capital.
However, observers note that despite Xi and Macron's seeming camaraderie, the French president's visit has only served to strengthen Beijing's diplomatic credentials as international leaders look to China for economic guarantees in response to Trump's tariffs. After a difficult summer in domestic politics, it has also given Macron an opportunity to portray statesmanship.
With the heads of some of France's largest companies joining Macron on his fourth state visit to China, investors are watching to see if a day that started with the French president surprising fellow joggers in the city's Jincheng Lake Park before joining Xi at a historic dam site will end with significant commercial deals or a thaw in EU-China trade tensions.
Only 12 collaboration agreements spanning topics including population aging, nuclear energy, and panda protection were reached at a summit in the Chinese capital on Thursday; no financial amount was revealed.
"I think they (France) thought that Xi would be in a position to offer a lot because Europe is really preparing this economic security doctrine," stated Alicia Garcia-Herrero, a senior scholar at Bruegel, a research tank.
"Macron probably felt that given his weight and the fact that France is clearly the one that is pushing the most on economic security, that they would get a deal, but nope."
Although Beijing is severely limited in its capacity to make significant concessions to Paris, it may view favorable relations with France as a means of increasing its influence within the 27-member EU.
For example, the Chinese leader was not expected to approve a long-awaited 500-jet Airbus contract since doing so would weaken China's position in trade negotiations with the United States, which is demanding fresh promises from Boeing.
Additionally, Beijing's negotiation position with Brussels over tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles would be weakened if Xi eased conditions for French pork or cognac producers.
Furthermore, given China's recent reaffirmation of its support for Russia, Xi cannot provide Macron with a breakthrough on the conflict in Ukraine to bring back to Europe.
Similar results were obtained from recent visits by German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil and King Felipe VI of Spain. According to Chinese government officials, Beijing believes it has the upper hand and is waiting for Brussels to give in and agree to a minimum pricing plan for its EVs instead of the tariffs that are currently in place.
"The EU is now aware of how complicated the situation is. They realized they were overly reliant on the United States when Trump was elected president once more.
One advisor stated, asking anonymity because he is not permitted to speak to the media, that Europe now needs more reciprocal trade with China. "The EU should really reflect on its China policy and not tie it too closely to Russia and Ukraine," he stated.
Even though negotiations over a historic EU-China investment pact have been stalled since 2021, Xi did not bring up the possibility of a trade agreement with the EU with Macron, which China's top diplomat Wang Yi brought up when Estonia's foreign minister visited last month and the Chinese commerce ministry has highlighted.
Germany, the largest economy in Europe, voted against the EV charges proposed by the European Commission, while France voted in favor of them.
China might try to take advantage of these differences. An official from the European Commission remarked, "It is interesting that they (China) keep raising it (a trade deal) with the member states."
They also asked to remain anonymous. "We have no plans whatsoever to have any kind of trade agreement with China," they continued.
