Between mid September and mid October, the number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits increased, suggesting that October's unemployment rate was higher.
Continuing claims, which monitor recipients of aid after the first week, increased from 1.916 million in mid September to 1.957 million in the week ending October 18. First time claims did not alter in spite of this rise, indicating some stability in the labor market. Reuters is the source.
Since late September, official weekly claims figures have not been published due to data gathering disruptions caused by the 43 day government shutdown.
Consequently, the White House has issued a warning that the October unemployment number might not be forthcoming. The delayed September employment report, which will give a more accurate picture of the labor market, will soon be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Sluggish hiring in the private sector is reflected in the increase of ongoing claims. According to ADP figures, over the four weeks ending November 1, private employers lost 2,500 positions on average each week.
There is no proof that layoffs rose during the government shutdown, according to Carl Weinberg, Chief Economist at High Frequency Economics. The general pattern suggests sluggish hiring in the face of economic uncertainties.
Citing stable first time claims and the overall state of the labor market, Federal Reserve officials have expressed reluctance to cut rates next month. Despite high ongoing claims, the latest data should calm markets and lower expectations of a December rate decrease.
Concerns about household finances and the deterioration of the labor market are reflected in the muted enthusiasm among homebuilders.
For the 19th consecutive month below the neutral level of 50, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index increased marginally to 38 in November.
Oliver Allen of Pantheon Macroeconomics is among the economists who predict that the housing market won't fully rebound until the middle of 2026, when mortgage rates start to decline and employment growth picks up.
Affordability is still a major problem. In contrast to the late 20s in the 1980s, the median age of first time homeowners is now 40, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Experts have criticized proposals like the 50 year mortgage put forth by former President Trump, claiming they could result in higher interest rates and slower asset buildup.
The housing market is receiving conflicting signals, according to the NAHB report. Future sales forecasts dropped to 51, while current sales conditions marginally improved to 41.
There was a slight rise in prospective buyer traffic to 26. With 41% lowering pricing and 65% utilizing additional incentives, more builders are providing incentives to complete agreements.
Despite these efforts, many prospective buyers are still reluctant to commit, according to NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes.
Overall, the number of unemployed claims is increasing, which may indicate a greater unemployment rate and muted hiring. High mortgage rates and affordability continue to be barriers to the housing market.
Rate reductions by the Federal Reserve don't seem imminent anytime soon. By mid 2026, analysts anticipate a significant recovery in the housing and employment markets, bolstered by lower interest rates and faster growth.
