Although shipments to the United States fell over 29% from a year earlier in November the eighth consecutive month of double-digit declines China's exports grew again in November after an unexpected dip the previous month.
According to customs figures issued on Monday, China's total exports in November were $330.3 billion, which exceeded economists' projections and was 5.9% higher than last year in dollar terms. Compared to a 1.1% contraction in October, that was an improvement.
The customs data revealed that China's trade surplus for the first 11 months exceeded $1 trillion, at approximately $1.08 trillion, highlighting a growing difference between total exports and imports.
That exceeds the $992 billion surplus for the entire year of 2024, according to official statistics gathered by FactSet, and is a record high for any one year.
While shipments to other countries, such as Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the European Union, have increased, exports from China to the United States have decreased throughout the majority of the year.
Even while consumer spending and corporate investment are still being negatively impacted by the ongoing decline in the real estate sector, China's imports grew 1.9% in November, reaching over $218.6 billion, stronger than October's 1% gain.
At a summit in late October in South Korea, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a one-year trade truce between the two countries. China has pledged to remove its export restrictions on rare earths, and the United States has reduced its tariffs on China.
According to a study by Lynn Song, senior economist for Greater China at ING Bank, "it's likely that November exports have yet to fully reflect the tariff cut, which should feed through in the coming months."
According to an official survey, China's factory activity shrank in November for the eighth consecutive month. Economists said it was too soon to say whether the U.S.-China trade truce had actually led to a true recovery in external demand.
Economists generally anticipate that China will roughly reach its 5% economic growth target for this year, given the continued strength of its exports.
According to state news agency Xinhua, Xi led an annual economic planning meeting on Monday to outline goals for economic growth in 2026. Chinese authorities emphasized the importance of "pursuing progress while ensuring stability."
According to Chi Lo, Global Market Strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, a calm global trade climate is unlikely to persist long since, despite their short trade truce, China-US ties "remain in a stalemate." Nonetheless, some analysts think that China will keep expanding its export market share in the years to come.
According to Morgan Stanley, China's advantage in advanced manufacturing and high-growth industries including electric vehicles, robotics, and batteries would propel its market share in global exports from roughly 15% to 16.5% by 2030.
In a recent statement, Morgan Stanley Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya stated, "We believe China will gain more share in the global goods export market despite persistent trade tensions, continued protectionism, and G20 economies taking up active industrial policies."
